Francesca Hong
Type: person | Domain relevance: the movement’s first high-profile 2026 loss — a democratic socialist who blew a double-digit polling lead in a battleground gubernatorial primary.
Summary
Wisconsin state representative and self-identified democratic socialist who led the Democratic gubernatorial primary field by 18–36 points in late polls and lost on August 11, 2026 to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley by 0.5 points (39.3–39.8, AP). The loss followed a chaotic field (three dropouts, one re-entry), Gov. Tony Evers’s endorsement of Crowley, late electability doubts tied to her democratic-socialist identification, and scrutiny of past statements (the “cancel Thanksgiving” post). Her actual vote share matched Marquette’s polling — the miss was undecideds coalescing against her.
Key Facts
- Lost by 0.5 points after 18–36 point polling leads; her raw support was polled accurately (~39%).
- One of two August 2026 cases (with El-Sayed) grounding the progressive-nonresponse-bias hypothesis.
- Her self-identification as democratic socialist was itself weaponized as an electability argument in the closing days.
In the Sources
| Source | Context |
|---|---|
| Wisconsin surprise raises big questions about polls and Democratic voters | Subject of the polling post-mortem |
Related
Entities: Abdul El-Sayed, Katie Wilson Events: 2026 Wisconsin Democratic Gubernatorial Primary Debates: Does socialism win elections in America?
Update 2026-09-03
The Hill’s Florida call story pairs her Wisconsin loss with Larkin’s FL defeat a week later as consecutive democratic-socialist losses outside deep-blue terrain, and describes her as having lost “despite polling that showed her with a substantial lead” (Moskowitz wards off DSA-backed challenger in Florida primary for toss-up House seat).
Update 2026-09-04
Morris’s microdata reanalysis attributes her polling lead mostly to primary-specific age targets and late consolidation, with nonresponse worth 2–5 points (I reanalyzed the raw data from Wisconsin's primary polls. Here's what actually went wrong.); the Examiner reports that Median Strategies, one of the pollsters showing her far ahead, admitted fabricating polls (Abdul el Sayed outperforms Mike Rogers in latest Michigan Senate poll (Susquehanna, Aug 11–17, 2026)).